Day 13: Wednesday
This morning I walked to downtown and back. On my own street I saw two cars, then one bike (I think the same one as yesterday), and passed three walkers on the way to downtown; I was passed by a Parks truck towing a lawnmower. Not very essential, but probably harmless. Downtown I saw at least half a dozen cars, a VTA bus, a garbage truck, and more. On the way back, I passed two dog-walkers. I had thought about biking, but the road was wet from last night's rain. That wouldn't have stopped me from commuting.
My work, since you don't ask, continues at normal pace, or very close indeed, and perhaps more smoothly than before. Meeting rooms were a scarce resource at our office, so that meetings had to be scheduled at odd times that broke the working day into many pieces. But working at home, we have as many meeting rooms as we have people, so all the co-ordination is crammed into two or three hours in the middle of the day, leaving me plenty of room to concentrate on a piece of code. I feel quite highly productive, and have stopped resenting meetings. Note to strangers: that office had very few meetings that were a pure waste of time, and even the ones I used to resent were mostly needed. It turns out that being limited to one large display is only a minor hindrance, relative to having two. The only major nuisance is lack of a desk at standing height; the one I bought many years ago for the boys was cheap and its height is fixed. In time, I may look for a (small) table of the requisite height, which is about 110 cm.
The good news is that the UK claims to be within a few days of providing millions of at-home tests for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. Two manufacturers are also ready to start making tens of thousands of ventilators, once given the go-ahead. I haven't yet heard anything about masks.
The bad news is that the graphs are just as frightening as before. Both USA and UK have roughly 10x more cases than they had 10 days ago. In about five weeks, Stein's_Law will take hold, because the entire population of both countries will be infected. The nasty news, though, is that at this growth rate, the number of recovered patients will be about 1% of the number still ill, so plasma treatment will be available to only a few cases (even assuming that all the recovered patients are fit and willing to give plasma, which is said to be quite an inconvenient process). Thus it may not save many of us. OTOH it may save the doctors and nurses we can least afford to lose. I also wonder what the treatment is like for the recipients: do they need repeat doses? I suspect so, since the cells that make the antibodies will not be included (and anyway they would be rejected by, or would themselves reject, the recipient).
I've seen a rather rambling article about how the virus may evolve. The author believes that the frightening case, namely an increase in mortality to Ebola-like levels, is not likely; selective pressure works in favour of more contagious virus, not more deadly ones, and there is not a close connection between the two.
The only countries whose economic strategies I've heard about the USA, UK, and Germany. All are promising massive stimuli, which is to say, "We'll pay the bill later." That Germans are willing to say this says a lot about how seriously they are taking CoViD-19. China's economy has already been hit hard (look at the air quality reports if you doubt this), but Xi seems almost ready to ease the lockdowns and restart business, albeit not quite as usual.
My work, since you don't ask, continues at normal pace, or very close indeed, and perhaps more smoothly than before. Meeting rooms were a scarce resource at our office, so that meetings had to be scheduled at odd times that broke the working day into many pieces. But working at home, we have as many meeting rooms as we have people, so all the co-ordination is crammed into two or three hours in the middle of the day, leaving me plenty of room to concentrate on a piece of code. I feel quite highly productive, and have stopped resenting meetings. Note to strangers: that office had very few meetings that were a pure waste of time, and even the ones I used to resent were mostly needed. It turns out that being limited to one large display is only a minor hindrance, relative to having two. The only major nuisance is lack of a desk at standing height; the one I bought many years ago for the boys was cheap and its height is fixed. In time, I may look for a (small) table of the requisite height, which is about 110 cm.
The good news is that the UK claims to be within a few days of providing millions of at-home tests for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. Two manufacturers are also ready to start making tens of thousands of ventilators, once given the go-ahead. I haven't yet heard anything about masks.
The bad news is that the graphs are just as frightening as before. Both USA and UK have roughly 10x more cases than they had 10 days ago. In about five weeks, Stein's_Law will take hold, because the entire population of both countries will be infected. The nasty news, though, is that at this growth rate, the number of recovered patients will be about 1% of the number still ill, so plasma treatment will be available to only a few cases (even assuming that all the recovered patients are fit and willing to give plasma, which is said to be quite an inconvenient process). Thus it may not save many of us. OTOH it may save the doctors and nurses we can least afford to lose. I also wonder what the treatment is like for the recipients: do they need repeat doses? I suspect so, since the cells that make the antibodies will not be included (and anyway they would be rejected by, or would themselves reject, the recipient).
I've seen a rather rambling article about how the virus may evolve. The author believes that the frightening case, namely an increase in mortality to Ebola-like levels, is not likely; selective pressure works in favour of more contagious virus, not more deadly ones, and there is not a close connection between the two.
The only countries whose economic strategies I've heard about the USA, UK, and Germany. All are promising massive stimuli, which is to say, "We'll pay the bill later." That Germans are willing to say this says a lot about how seriously they are taking CoViD-19. China's economy has already been hit hard (look at the air quality reports if you doubt this), but Xi seems almost ready to ease the lockdowns and restart business, albeit not quite as usual.
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