CoViD-19 and I

I walked to downtown again today, from 7 to 7:30. Three guys were walking dogs, one woman running (not jogging), a pair jogging, a pair walking. Three cars and two pickup trucks that seemed to be landscapers. Pretty normal day, really. Each of us went out for a walk; each of us spent much of our time online, with activities ranging from software development to D&D. Our connection went down for two or three minutes in mid-afternoon, but came back up. The graph of total cases in the county looks a bit jerky, but yesterday's 200 new cases may have been a blip. Doubling time again looks to be between 5 and 6 days. California as a whole is slightly quicker; New York, Michigan, and Louisiana are on fire. Why Michigan? There is a well-reasoned  claim that NYC is starting to flatten out, which will be very good news, if borne out. At the national scale, both US and UK seem to be doubling deaths in 3 days and cases in 4, so we can hope that they are truly declerating. Spain has c

My wife went shopping this morning and was able to get most of her list, including oats for my breakfast and cans of tomatoes. There were even a few packages of toilet paper, all of which she left on the shelf for those who may need them. My morning routine went normally except for oversleeping by half an hour, but it was hard to do a day's work. My legs ached and I occasionally felt sleepy. Perhaps I let myself go soft over the weekend; certainly I spent too long reading Reddit. I felt that my brain needed some online junk food, but could not keep it from over-indulging. Concerning the county, I spoke too soon: today there are roughly 200 more cases, and 3 more deaths. But the NYT shows more signs of improvement in Spain and Italy; maybe France too, and still too early to tell for the UK. What made more impression on me was this article  by John Cochrane, which proposes that restricting all the people and all the things they do is foolish: costly and not very effective, compar

I've been to the Farmers' Market again.  While I've not done a careful count, I think there were slightly fewer vendors than a week ago; I forgot, this time, to say thank you to those who are still selling. Most of them had home-made masks, some in bright floral prints. Three customers had white masks that looked more serious than the usual fabric-plus-elastic. At least one customer apologised to me, not for bumping into me, but for accidentally getting within six feet. I held my monthly discussion group over Google Hangouts. I'm glad I started early, because I had not used it on that tablet before and messed up the app. After that, the discussion went well, Unlike the hangouts we hold work, it was not just comforting, but important, to see faces, so that I could tell how people were reacting to each other's words, as one can at a physical meeting. Of the newcomers who had signed up on Meetup, only one actually appeared, which is roughly typical, but may have been

This morning I slept in an hour or more, and went for my walk late, so I met a few more people. There were two old ladies who had solved the problem of staying 2 metres apart on a 1.5 metre sidewalk by not using the sidewalk. Since there are effectively no cars about, it becomes safe to walk down the roadway, and they were doing so, side by side but well separated. "Good distancing, I see!" But my lungs must be getting old: they begin to ache even when walking at full speed. Possibly jogging would be a more efficient  gait at that speed, but I want to preserve my joints. You've heard of what the medics call "benign tumours", right? They're not actually beneficial, but neither are they malignant: they don't grow much and don't do significant harm. You've also heard that we have huge populations of bacteria in our guts, on our skins, and probably in other parts of our bodies, some of which are beneficial, and many more of which are benign in the

Light frost this morning; if it had been warmer, I might have got the bike out. As things were, I walked across El Camino -- jaywalking in perfect safety at about 07:10! -- and failed to talk myself out of a quick swing through the supermarket. Eggs: none. Flour: none made from wheat, though there was almond flour. Cooking oil: hardly any. Cans of soup: some, but huge gaps on the shelves. Come on, people. Someone I know took her three small children out for a walk and was stopped by a cop who told her they formed too large a group. Gaaah. I'm told the National Guard has  been mobilised, including some to our area, but have seen no sign of them at all. More constructively, the supermarket had marked spots six feet apart so people who queue up can keep their distance. I still see very few masks. Good. Keep those for the medics. At work, they're starting to think about making our lives easier, such as by shipping us the monitors we left at the office, where nearly nobody needs

This morning I walked to downtown and back. On my own street I saw two cars, then one bike (I think the same one as yesterday), and passed three walkers on the way to downtown; I was passed by a Parks truck towing a lawnmower. Not very essential, but probably harmless. Downtown I saw at least half a dozen cars, a VTA bus, a garbage truck, and more. On the way back, I passed two dog-walkers. I had thought about biking, but the road was wet from last night's rain. That wouldn't have stopped me from commuting. My work, since you don't ask, continues at normal pace, or very close indeed, and perhaps more smoothly than before. Meeting rooms were a scarce resource at our office, so that meetings had to be scheduled at odd times that broke the working day into many pieces. But working at home, we have as many meeting rooms as we have people, so all the co-ordination is crammed into two or three hours in the middle of the day, leaving me plenty of room to concentrate on a piece o

Very quiet streets this morning. I walked for close to half an hour and saw two or three people walking dogs, a car warming up in a drive, a cyclist dressed in bright yellow, and not much else. I should go for a ride myself, y'know. I don't like running, and walking isn't enough of a workout to keep me strong for the long term. Quite what the traffic lights will do is anybody's guess, with almost no cars to trip their sensors. But by that same token, with almost no cars, it won't feel bad to just press the pedestrian button and block the cross traffic for 20 or 30 seconds. I could even ride by a few stores and see what they've got on their shelves, but that adds risk for very little gain. We are well supplied. I'm starting to relax about the risk of my sons having brought a virus home. It has been a week for number 1 and six days for his brother, with no symptoms. We shall be just as careful as before when coming home from outside, and I wiped the kitchen

My wife went to the supermarket good and early, and came home home with plenty of fruit, vegetables, even beer, and another bag of flour to make bread. A small victory, but a real confidence boost. Panic buying was never necessary; the system is working. Oh, and the loaf I made using pastry flour has turned out quite well, but I'll be glad to save it for pastries.  Today we ate leftovers mostly. This resulted in part from nobody making a plan to cook, but also from making generous portions during the past week. I am looking for a TED talk for the Sunday Assembly. This evening I've already found one that I think will do very well -- going to keep it a secret for a while -- and others that are interesting in themselves. My discussion group has four RSVP already, so I cannot doubt that people want some kind of contact. One of the talks I found bore the title "You are not alone in your loneliness." How better to describe the present situation? From the news, one lit

I combined my morning walk with visiting the Farmers' Market, which counts as buying food. There were 10% to 20% fewer vendors than last Sunday, so I made a point of thanking the ones I bought from. It's hard to know how many are staying home because they want to stay safe and how many are simply getting fewer customers than before and so no longer find it worthwhile to come. Conceivably, some are running out of stock due to panic buying, but most of what they sell is too perishable to tempt panic buyers. I did see a line at a stall that sells bread, with people well spaced out. Some vendors wore gloves when handling money, but not all. It would be easy for a coin to spread virus; as it happened, I bought in whole numbers of dollars (and some vendors have long preferred to round the final amount pretty ruthlessly rather than hand out, or ask for, coins). It's three weeks to the next scheduled Sunday Assembly, so we held a meeting to plan what online platforms we would con

Saturday is the day when I rest as much as I want to after a hard week's work. We even eat out -- or, these days, get take-out food, which today was pizza. I've done a few fun things and feel pretty cheerful. Cheerful enough, in fact, to dig out the folder from that talk I went to last year, at my wife's encouragement, on setting your affairs in order well before you die, which can save your spouse and/or children a good deal of trouble and expense. Not to mention making it easier for them to convince doctors to heed their recommendations. A patient who has a breathing tube down his throat is not going to be able to tell the doctors anything, and he (that is, I) may well be drugged enough that what he might say would have no legal force. The money is not a big problem: nearly everything we own is covered under "community property", so my wife won't even have to inherit it: it is already hers. No, I'm not showing symptoms, nor have I been exposed to any

I've missed two days, and have an excuse for one of them. On Wednesday afternoon my second son came home, and I realised that I had been a little bit anxious. I hadn't seriously doubted that he would be all right in the end, but the way home might have been difficult. In the end it was easy; the aircraft had plenty of empty seats and even the baggage claim was not crowded. His suitcases were also heavy, especially as his roommate had departed in a great hurry and left some things behind. There was some hand sanitiser and a box of disinfectant wipes left in his room (?), and he had the sense to bring them home. First son cooked a celebratory salmon for us while I finished work. We stayed up some time after that, while his brother related what a stressful week it had been. The numbers from China aren't final (nothing is), but they report no new infections, a total of nearly 81,000, and over 3,200 deaths, with 70,000 recoveries. That ratio is not reassuring, especially f

This morning I went southwards, rather than northwards, for my morning walk. I saw about five other people, most of whom were walking without dogs, and a few cars. Then came stretching exercises, which I think are important at my age, and best done with muscles that have warmed up. I also do some push-ups; not very many, because I can't do very many, but working on that. Even with exercise, I don't have a colossal appetite for breakfast. So get down to work. New guidance from my employer on working at home suggests dressing as if to go the office --- nonsense, say I -- and actually turning the video feed on during meetings so that we can see each other's ugly faces, which I agree with. Much though I'd rather see beautiful or handsome faces, it does me good to see and hear that the people I've spent so much time with are still there and still human; to gossip a bit. The one who was the undisputed clown of the team has, unfortunately, been shifted to another project

I've heard back from my other neighbour that they are doing all right. This has been a relatively normal (by recent standards) working day. The announcement of the the Bay Area's "shelter in place" reached me about 15:00. It seems fairly sensible, or perhaps just bows to reality. People can still go jogging, just not in groups. The boys have moved their flight dates up. Let's be glad that there are so many vacant seats! Discussed with my wife whether we should ask the boys to take extra precautions when they get here. They've been widely exposed over the past week, to a population that has a low rate of infection so far. Read some proposals that seem to make sense. Since people are going to have to stay at home, make some great entertainment available online or even (gasp) on TV. Stage some NBA games or something, using players who have tested negative. I hear that the Berlin Phil has made its catalog available, no paywall. Guarantee treatment to medic

Last night I read several more chapters of World War Z  and it was none too easy to fall asleep. This morning I went to the Farmers' Market, arriving shortly after it opened, and found roughly the normal crowd of both vendors and customers. Most wore no protective gear; the vendors, in any case, come largely from less affected parts of the state. I wore gloves while making purchases, but not for any reason I had thought through. I was careful to buy no more than I expected to eat over the coming week. If other people were hoarding, I didn't see it. Most of what is sold here is perishable, but can last weeks in the fridge. The Sunday Assembly held a team meeting by video, for the first time. That part went smoothly after the first ten minutes or so of people getting used to the app. No-one had trouble installing it -- ten years ago would have been different. We took it for granted that an indoor Assembly for next month was off the table, and mulled whether to hold an outdoor

It's now a full week since I stopped commuting. I have no cough. We are short on thermometers, and certainly not desperate enough to try and buy one (imagine how many are left!), but I expect I was not infected at work. Yesterday my wife and I discussed the tactics we'll use once the boys get home. The main thing is to wash hands carefully when re-entering the house. Within the house, we'll use ordinary hygiene, plus washing hands for every meal (which was our routine when the boys were young), until or unless someone shows symptoms. I've contacted my neighbours, who are elderly, and asked them to get in touch if they need anything brought to them. Speaking of which, we have a tradition of eating out on Saturday afternoon; today, we shall bring food home from a local restaurant. I assume that they go to some lengths to keep the food safe anyway, but it is much harder to keep tables and counters free of virus. I've found out the  reasoning  behind the UK governme

In the beginning, the Universe was created. This has made a lot of people angry and been widely regarded as a Bad Move. - Douglas Adams The only way to cope with something deadly serious is to try to treat it a little lightly. - Madeleine L'Engle (or earlier The first kick I was given towards treating CoViD-19 as deadly serious came from  Liz Specht , to whom I was referred by  Marginal Revolution . (If you're at all like me, you will love MR.) People who work with me at RSS also posted links to some articles, including epidemiology and information about how long the virus survives on various surfaces. A key fact caught my eye: one of the most effective means China found to slow the epidemic was to shut public transport down. (They can do that in China, just by saying so.) Since I was commuting by train and bicycle, this made it clear that simply getting to work was putting me at risk. Being at work wasn't great, but it seemed bearable. There are surfaces everyone

My older son, a History major, has decided to keep a journal, because undoubtedly history is being made. This pandemic is much worse than SARS or MERS, both of which stayed safely confined to countries I had never visited. While I hesitate to say that it is worse than Ebola, because the latter is far more lethal, it has spread wider and touched the lives of far more people. So I'm starting to keep a journal too. I wonder what it will turn into. You all know how we heard about a novel coronavirus in Wuhan, the stringent quarantines imposed by the Chinese government, and its early spread outside China.  About the only good I can see in that is that the graphs showed the true meaning of the word "exponentially", which has been widely misused over the past few years to describe anything unusually rapid. You all know how the Chinese made the virus' genetic code available and statistics about its spread; you have read the analyses about the difference between the number o