Day 25. Monday. More food.
I overslept a little, so did less exercise than usual. Grrr. OTOH my wife's shopping trip was quite successful. She was able to buy flour and toilet paper, plus the usual meat and vegetables. Dried lentils remain scarce. My younger son officially started his spring term today, and asked us not to bug him until his classes were over for the day.
The numbers still show progress, even if some are too optimistic for me to find credible. In this county, the number of cases has taken eight days to double. Statewide, the numbers from the hospitals seem stable, but a significant percentage have not reported in as of 21:00 PDT, so in reality there may have been something like 10% growth. Even New York is doing a little better. Nationally, the US has doubled its death toll in five days and its case load (with a grain of salt) in eight. The UK has an implausibly low death toll for today, but the total number of cases have doubled in six days.
Oh, and Boris is in intensive care. There have also been resignations of public figures who thought they didn't have to take precautions themselves. Good.
If people are working on plans for the end game, they have not told me. The news I've heard suggests that wealthy countries are going to, in effect, pay the unemployed to stay at home for some time. But it is hard to believe that, in (more or less) free countries, all of them will do so. There will be leakage. Some people will be infected and actively contagious. It does not yet seem that we'll be able to test the whole population reliably; I hear from the UK that the antibody tests are not turning out to be sensitive enough or specific enough, and there will be a long wait for a vaccine. How much risk am I willing to take personally, by venturing out?
The numbers still show progress, even if some are too optimistic for me to find credible. In this county, the number of cases has taken eight days to double. Statewide, the numbers from the hospitals seem stable, but a significant percentage have not reported in as of 21:00 PDT, so in reality there may have been something like 10% growth. Even New York is doing a little better. Nationally, the US has doubled its death toll in five days and its case load (with a grain of salt) in eight. The UK has an implausibly low death toll for today, but the total number of cases have doubled in six days.
Oh, and Boris is in intensive care. There have also been resignations of public figures who thought they didn't have to take precautions themselves. Good.
If people are working on plans for the end game, they have not told me. The news I've heard suggests that wealthy countries are going to, in effect, pay the unemployed to stay at home for some time. But it is hard to believe that, in (more or less) free countries, all of them will do so. There will be leakage. Some people will be infected and actively contagious. It does not yet seem that we'll be able to test the whole population reliably; I hear from the UK that the antibody tests are not turning out to be sensitive enough or specific enough, and there will be a long wait for a vaccine. How much risk am I willing to take personally, by venturing out?
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